[讨论]吴敬琏：坚定地推进市场化改革实现增长模式转型（节选） [复制链接]

Zerg 你也知道我最近研究利率政策比较多一点 但是我明显的感觉到政府目前的重点不是货币流动性 而是在信贷体制上的问题

现在政府试图阻止信贷的一种自我加强的反身性关系 以免出现1985年美国信贷无序扩张而导致的金融危机

我开始把自己的研究方向转到更微观的信贷问题上而不是广泛的货币供给 你可以密切关注一下我的space 今天刚写了一篇简短的文章 分析到了在信贷紧缩的情况下对银行业的利润增长

经济领域资金过度充足成为增长加速的一个根本原因，而资金过度充足的部分原因是中国对美国及其他贸易伙伴国的巨额贸易顺差。随著出口扩大，大量美元涌入中国，央行为了保持人民币汇率的稳定性不断买入美元，放出人民币。多余的人民币最终以银行贷款的形式进入经济流通领域，致使本已过热的投资进一步膨胀起来。

如果存款利率上调幅度过大、导致贷款业务大幅下滑，则有可能吸引更多预期人民币必定会升值的热钱流入国内市场。这些热钱将增加国内经济领域的流动性，从而削弱加息的调控效果。

to zergling, holyshare, and to all those interested in studying Chinese Economy,

let me show you guys an article.

i promise after you have read it all over, carefully of course, you'll find there's no meaning in studying chinese economy

because: it is shit, it is shit for chinese people

after you read it, you'll lose all of your passions

fuck off chinese economy, it's total shit, it's none of my business

fuck chinese economy a thousand times

if it's for personal interest, then OK

if for studying, no meaning.

interest rate, foreign exchange rate, chino-america trading,credit, financial reform, real estate....bla bla bla.

all these topics become shit once you realize the essence of chinese economy.

once you realize the real engine of chinese economy,you'll find how shit our government is.

frankly i prefer Mao Zedong.it's true.

the article is too long

to pick one paragraph is enough

中国独特体制有这样一种功能：它可以将全球经济竞争的压力向内转移并转移给它的底层人民，而在国家层面上维持一种强大的形象。个中奥妙，是长期生活在西方国家的人们所难以理解的。所以，在中国凭借各种强劲的指标引得观者如云，并博得阵阵惊叹的时候，它实际上可能是在表演一套魔术。不过，在一通让人眼花缭乱的东方功夫之后，我们也开始渐渐露出了最大的破绽，那就是：我们有一个庞大得惊人的底层人口和一群毫无竞争力的本土企业。这正是是我们在全球化图景背后，看到的另外一个中国。

zergling, don't be so passionate anymore

to all the friends here :

Option 1 : jump out of the system

Option 2 : to be a governer

Option 3 : to take advantage of the system (to "buo xue" other people)

Option 4 : die

Hehe, thanks, Bernard, your suggestion is quite interesting and practical.

Actually, I will think it over, thanks again.

Frankly speaking, I just found the main problem China's economy is facing is the decision-making regime and its supervision system.

It is quite prevalent that local government attach top priority on how much foreign capital you can attract in certain period. That's really ridiculous and absurd. Then, it is no wonder that there are too much foreign capital in the market, while there are too little valuable projects to let these capital work. Eventually, these capital all poured into real estate market, fundamental market, etc, with the prerequisite that central bank has to publicize the same amount of RMB. Then, the inflation crisis is looming. Nobody can substantially cure this problem, with escalating amount of RMB in the market.

Anyway, I am an graduate with economic background. I do feel we all endowed with a responsibility on considering how to boom and propel Chinese economy. Thanks again for your suggestion.

you're welcome. actually i'm not majored in economics.

i was interested in chinese economy before, several years ago i began to feel something very strange. But at that time i could not explain what exactly it is.

Now, i can. Chinese government is so brutal. They are just animals.

Nowaday China is neither socialism nor capitalism.

What is it ? A Monster. Internally speaking, it's cruel, merciless and intelligent. Externally speaking, it's rediculous, begging and stupid.